cearta.ie

the Irish for rights

“Predictions are difficult …”

Nostradamus picture, via wikipedia.as the great baseball player Yogi Berra is reputed to have observed, “… especially about the future”.

That hasn’t stopped John Naugton (Memex | Observer column), looking back at 2007 and looking forward to 2008 in his most recent Observer column “Apple and ruled a year to note in your Facebook”, which concludes:

What’s next? As usual, William Gibson‘s aphorism (‘The future’s already here, it’s just not evenly distributed’) provides the best guide. Apple will launch a 3G iPhone and cause even greater havoc in the mobile-phone business. It will also launch a micro-laptop using the new Intel 45-nanometre Silverthorne chip, and open more stores in upmarket locations. It will, however, feel the heat of European regulators as they focus on ‘interoperability’ issues, in particular the way songs purchased from Apple’s iTunes store will only play on iPods.

Next year will see mass outbreaks of a Facebook fatigue, as busy professionals realise they are wasting an hour or more a day on essentially mindless activities. By contrast, activity-based networking sites, such as Flickr.com, will continue to prosper, for the simple reason that they are not self-limiting in the way that ego-centric services are. It will also be the year when the world wakes up to what the bosses at Google already know; the computing industry has a colossal, and unacceptable, environmental footprint in terms of its consumption of electrical power and natural resources.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that spam will continue to increase and we may finally discover what the Storm ‘botnet’ – the colossal network of compromised Windows machines someone has been covertly building over the past year – is for. My hunch is that the net is headed for its own version of 9/11. So enjoy it while it lasts. Happy New Year.

Yikes! It is an apocalyptic vision, worthy of Nostradamus (pictured) himself.

Happy new year!!

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2 Responses to ““Predictions are difficult …””

  1. Steve says:

    Is it really so much of a secret what Storm is for? Most commentators assume that it’s for making money for its owners, probably by renting it out for such vulgar purposes as spamming, 419 fraud and other phishing, DDoS attacks and such. The fact that it’s so large is not a great mystery, either, though it does make it an interesting phenomenon. (Until relatively recently, botherders were keeping their nets quite small, to avoid detection.) As for the Nostradamus interpretation, I’m sure the idea of bringing the entire net down has occurred to Storm’s owners, but there is no obvious business model – it would guarantee a high degree of attention from the Feds, without any very obvious return. The comparison with 9/11 is not apt – the perpetrators have different motivations ….

  2. Eoin says:

    Well, until we know who the perpetrators are, we won’t know whether their motives are nefarious (as Naugthon suggests) or merely commercial (as you suggest). At this stage, each interpretation strikes me as easily plausible. And anyway, even if Storm doesn’t lead to an internet 9/11, there are so many other possible routes to that outcome that Naughton’s doom-laden predictions of might still turn out to be just as as accurate as those of Nostradamus before him!

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Welcome

Me in a hatHi there! Thanks for dropping by. I'm Eoin O'Dell, and this is my blog: Cearta.ie - the Irish for rights.

"Cearta" really is the Irish word for rights, so the title provides a good sense of the scope of this blog.

In general, I write here about private law, free speech, and cyber law; and, in particular, I write about Irish law and education policy.

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What I'd like for here is a simple widget that takes the list of feeds from my existing RSS reader and displays it here as a blogroll. Nothing fancy. I'd love a recommendation, if you have one.

I had built a blogroll here on my Google Reader RSS subscriptions. Google Reader produced a line of html for each RSS subscription category, each of which I pasted here. So I had a list of my subscriptions as my blogroll, organised by category, which updated whenever I edited Google Reader. Easy peasy. However, with the sad and unnecessary demise of that product, so also went this blogroll. Please take a moment to mourn Google Reader. If there's an RSS reader which provides a line of html for the list of subscriptions, or for each RSS subscription category as Google Reader did, I'd happily use that. So, as I've already begged, I'd love a recommendation, if you have one.

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